What occurred the final time the SEC did not have any teaching turnover and why historical past might repeat itself


It’s been 13 years for the reason that SEC stayed this calm.

There have been no stunning firings, no offseason scandals and no inevitable departures. The offseason headlines that every one however outlined the SEC within the 13 years that adopted had been nowhere to be discovered from the tip of 2005 to the beginning of 2006.

What occurred within the subsequent 13 years was something however calm. There was not less than 1 new coach within the convention each season that adopted the outlier that was 2006. Not together with interim coaches, right here was the breakdown of head coaches modifications within the SEC from 2006-19:

  • Alabama: 1
  • Auburn: 2
  • Arkansas: 3
  • Florida: 3
  • Georgia: 1
  • Kentucky: 2
  • LSU: 1
  • MSU: 2
  • Mizzou (from 2012 on): 1
  • Ole Miss: 3
  • South Carolina: 1
  • Tennessee: 4
  • Texas A&M (from 2012 on): 2
  • Vanderbilt: 3

That’s 29 head teaching modifications within the SEC for the reason that 2006 season began. Mainly, it’s a median of greater than 2 modifications per crew throughout that stretch, which equals Three totally different head coaches at every faculty over the course of these 13 years. That’s additionally a median of simply north of two teaching strikes made per offseason within the SEC.

So why is that this vital now?

Properly, a pair causes. Barring something of Hugh Freeze-like craziness, the SEC will enter 2019 with no new coach for the primary time since 2006. That, you may already know.

What you may not know is that what adopted that quiet post-2005 offseason yielded arguably essentially the most spectacular stretch we’ve ever seen from a convention within the trendy period of school soccer.

And name me loopy, however there are parallels galore between then and now.

Credit score: Kevin Jairaj/CFP Photographs/Pool Picture by way of USA TODAY Sports activities

Earlier than you catch me saying that the SEC is about to embark on a decade of unprecedented dominance once more, let’s pump the breaks. Clemson is constructed to final in a means that USC and Texas weren’t below their respective head coaches following the thrilling finish to the 2005 season.

That’s why it appears all however not possible that the SEC claims the following 7 nationwide championships prefer it did from 2006-12. In case you forgot, 2 SEC groups (Florida and LSU) received their titles earlier than Nick Saban received his first at Alabama. Together with Auburn in 2010, 1/Three of the convention received a nationwide title from 2006-12. That, in all chance, ain’t occurring once more.

However return to why the post-2005 offseason didn’t have any teaching turnover within the first place. A number of SEC groups had cause to imagine they had been in place to win a title with a comparatively new coach:

Florida

City Meyer, Yr 2

No. 12

No. 7

LSU

Les Miles, Yr 2

No. 6

No. 8

Georgia

Mark Richt, Yr 6

No. 10

No. 15

Alabama

Mike Shula, Yr 4

No. 8

No. 25

Auburn

Tommy Tuberville, Yr 8

No. 14

No. 4

(I notice that Shula ultimately gave technique to Saban and that Auburn received its nationwide title with Gene Chizik.)

5 SEC groups completed within the prime 15 in 2005. Sound acquainted? It ought to as a result of that’s precisely what occurred in 2018. It was truly 6 SEC groups within the prime 16 if you wish to embrace Jimbo Fisher’s Texas A&M squad.

Talking of Fisher, he’s a key a part of one of many 2006/2019 parallels. Take a look at Fisher getting into Yr 2 at A&M in comparison with City Meyer getting into Yr 2 at Florida:

Yr 1 AP end

No. 12

No. 16

Yr 1 report (SEC report)

9-3 (5-3)

9-4 (5-3)

First full recruiting cycle

No. 2

No. 4

Preseason Yr 2 rating

No. 7 (AP)

No. 11 (ESPN)

Yr 2 end

No. 1, nationwide champs

TBD

Fascinating, isn’t it? Clearly Meyer didn’t need to cope with Saban in his Yr 2 like Fisher should, however the level is that we don’t see a ceiling but.

Need one other 2006/2019 comp? Positive. Stick with me on this one, however Les Miles and Kirby Good had extra similarities at that stage of their careers — an vital caveat up to now — than individuals in all probability notice.

Earlier SEC report

7-1 (2005)

7-1 (2018)

Earlier SEC end

Win West, lose in SEC champ.

Win East, lose in SEC champ.

Earlier AP Prime 25 end

No. 6 (2005)

No. 7 (2018)

Preseason Prime 25 rating

No. 8 (2006, AP)

No. 4 (2019, ESPN)

Miles and Meyer in fact every went on to win a nationwide title within the 2 seasons after the SEC’s quiet post-2005 offseason. Will Good and Fisher do this? I definitely wouldn’t rule it out, however clearly the Alabama-Clemson roadblock continues to be standing taller than ever.

However given how down the remainder of the ACC is, how Ohio State is getting into its first 12 months of the post-Meyer period, how utterly dreadful the Pac-12 has been and the way Oklahoma couldn’t win its semifinal matchup in opposition to both SEC crew with both of its Heisman Trophy successful quarterbacks, the time is perhaps proper for one more SEC run.

It doesn’t need to be 7 consecutive nationwide titles from Four groups to be thought-about “a run.” Possibly Three SEC groups win nationwide titles within the subsequent 5 years. Maybe that is all establishing for Saban, Fisher and Good to every win a nationwide championship by the center of the 2020s decade. Shoot, perhaps it’s Dan Mullen at Florida who finally ends up doing his finest Meyer imitation and he stuns everybody in Yr 2.

We don’t know the longer term and no 2 applications are the identical. However the previous means that when the SEC has such a quiet offseason on the teaching entrance, it’s normally for an excellent cause. 5 SEC groups received not less than 9 video games in 2005, and 6 SEC groups achieved that feat in 2018.

In 2018, 9 of the 14 SEC groups received not less than Eight video games. That’s 64% of the convention. Imagine it or not, the SEC not less than hit that mark in in 2006, 2007, 2013, 2015. But for one cause or one other, there was not less than 1 new coach the next season.

This 12 months is already totally different. Maybe like 2006, the SEC is about to embark on a brand new period of success. For all we all know, this offseason will function the calm earlier than the storm.

And as soon as once more, quickly it’ll be raining nationwide titles for the SEC.





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