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How much damage will happen to India by trump in Afghanistan – jj
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How much damage will happen to India by trump in Afghanistan

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The internal and external security of Afghanistan depends on the presence of the US military. America is the center of security for Afghanistan. After 2001, the US has retained its presence in Afghanistan.

One of the reasons for this is that the United States was considering the stability of Afghanistan as a main goal of its foreign policy. From then on, political, economic and regionally stable Afghanistan has been the priority of US foreign policy.

But the Trump administration now wants to change its policy. During the election before becoming President, Trump had said that he wanted to bring American soldiers out of Iraq and Afghanistan.

He got great support from this because America has tired of these two wars for two decades and wants political power to pay more attention to the domestic front. Trump redeemed this matter in the election and now wants to do something like this in Afghanistan before the next election that can say, yes I have fulfilled my promise.

So now the Trump Administration wants to change its policy in a rush or a fixed time frame.

Big change

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For the Taliban against which America was fighting for so many years, the United States has now been prepared to join the Afghan political structure.

Seven rounds of talks have been held between the two and further negotiations are going on for certain conditions. The big change will be that the United States against whom it was fighting till yesterday will now become part of Afghanistan's government machinery and political structure.

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Because of this, the US will say that there is a political reconciliation in different factions in Afghanistan. Existing President Ashraf Ghani and earlier political parties who were involved in power were still against the Taliban.

But the Taliban has given this message repeatedly that he can attack anywhere, he has control over a large part of Afghanistan's land and without it there can be no political solution, he can not be defeated in military form.

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In response to this, the American policy is that we are not able to defeat the Taliban, so negotiations will give the Taliban a place in the structure of power. Because of this, the picture can become something that you will see the Taliban in power, see the policies of the Taliban, apply some of the Taliban's radical Islamic agenda.

There have been seven rounds of talks between the United States and the Taliban, but it has not yet become clear on what condition the Taliban is being brought to power. Indications are that the US will give some trust and Taliban will give some guarantee. In this, the Taliban talked about the conflict between the Afghan factions and the ceasefire on their behalf.

Before this, the Taliban had said that we will only talk to the United States, Ashraf will not talk to the Ghani government. The reason for the Taliban is that the government is a puppet and real control is from the United States, so we will talk to America only. But now the Taliban's stand has changed. The United States would like to take a guarantee that the land of Afghanistan will not be used against the United States.

The positive prospect is that the political process will start in Afghanistan. But the fear is that the Taliban's attitude will change after coming into government, because no one will stop the Taliban after coming to power.

Concern of India

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After the arrival of the Taliban's old government and the arrival of America in 2001, a new political process started.

After that, India has invested extensively in Afghanistan. India has done a great deal of political and diplomatic investments along with economic growth.

Training to India, Afghan National Army, Afghan diplomats, bureaucrats and other professionals. India has built a parliament building for them, built dams, made roads and infrastructure. India's image in Afghanistan is very positive, people like India.

Question on India's role

But now the way the equations are being created, India's role in it will not be the same as before. India does not recognize the Taliban and India has been saying that the Taliban can not get out of their Islamic agenda.

There will be enthusiasm in the radical Islamists who come from the Taliban to power. For example, when the Taliban gained the last time, the extremism in Indian Kashmir had increased. The message will be that when we can drive away the United States, we can disperse others.

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In this process, the importance of Pakistan has increased once again. Pakistan is playing a major role for America. President Trump has called the Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan America. Trump is also giving these messages that Pakistan is important for Afghanistan. The policy that Trump initiated in August 2017, was given to India in South Asia.

It looks like a change is coming in and the US wants to bring Pakistan back to Central Roll, because unlike Taliban talks without Pakistan, it will not proceed further. Pakistan is playing an important role in the peace process in Afghanistan. Increasing role of Pakistan can lead to problems of India. This will also make regional equations messy.

However, in changing circumstances, India has changed its attitude a bit. India has been watching that the Taliban's side is getting huge, given that India also has some back-channel talks. China will also have a role in it. Mullah Barad of the Taliban had gone to China some time ago. There may be that China has pressurized the Taliban to negotiate, the peace process will move forward so that the departure of the US will be soon and the role of China is increased.

Since India is completely out of the Afghan peace talks, the interest of India can be in jeopardy due to the arrival of the US and the Taliban.

According to a report, about 57 percent of the Afghan population is in control of the government, while the Taliban occupies 15 percent of the area, and the conflict between the two continues for the remaining part. The problem is that the Afghan National Army has not yet been able to emerge stronger. He still needs America The problem is that Afghanistan has not been ready to deal with the Taliban on its own, while the Taliban has been getting help from Pakistan.

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Talking about US President Trump, he is quick due to the election. But the Taliban does not have such a hurry.

Both have different views and the Taliban themselves feel more powerful. He can wait even if he wants and can continue the fight.

(Based on interaction with BBC correspondent Sandeep Soni)

(For BBC Android's Android app you Click here can do. You us Facebook And Twitter But also can follow.)

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