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A Historic Look At Publish-Earnings Efficiency For Apple Inc. (AAPL) – jj

A Historic Look At Publish-Earnings Efficiency For Apple Inc. (AAPL)


82 days have passed by since the last earnings report for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and the new quarterly results look set to arrive in 9 days. The shares of AAPL at the moment are trading at a volume of 20.62 million, which compares with its normal daily standard volume of 26711182 shares. This has led to the shares of the company declining by -1.49%, currently exchanging hands at $202.59 a share. AAPL stock has been up by $30.88 (-13.23%) ever since it reached its 52-week high of $233.47 back in October 03, 2018. It has progressed above its 50-day moving average of $197.15 and is down -0.35% over the past week. The stock has added 1% since the last one arrived so the question here is that will the upbeat trend in that time frame continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is the AAPL share price due for a correction?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) Forecasts And Latest Quarter Earnings

Ahead of their fiscal third-quarter to be released on Tuesday, Jul 30, 2019, 35 analysts who are covering the company are estimating that it will record a profit of $2.1 per share, with analysts having different outlooks from $1.79 to $2.2. The current agreed outlook, when compared to the profit recorded last year, is at $2.34 a share, thus a decrease of -10.26% is expected. The profit view for a complete financial year for Apple Inc. is expected to be around $11.43 in current year, a growth of nearly -4.03% from last year which was $11.91.

Let’s now look at their sales section, AAPL’s revenue is estimated to be $53.27B, a figure which is more than the $53.27B recorded for Q3 last year. Their sequential sales though are expected to fall by -7.93% from their Q2’s sales which were $58.02B. Their full-year outlook is pegged at $256.82B, implying that there would be a drop of -3.31% over the $265.6B they recorded last year in revenue. Apple Inc. is projected to get sales lifted by 4.42% in the next quarter, with a revenue target of $268.16B.

Analyzing The Earnings History Of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)

In the past few years, the AAPL stock has been known to miss the Wall Street’s earnings projection. The company missed 0% of the time, according to the data pulled on their earnings, was able to meet predictions on 0 occasions and topped expectations 12 times. Looking at the past trend, the price of Apple Inc. shares had risen following the release of their earnings in 21 of the last 38 quarters.

Looking back, here is how Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock reacted to earnings misses and beats. It gave investors reason to be bullish with the price going down after 1 of the last four earnings reports. The shares of Apple Inc. recorded 4.91%, 6.83%, -6.63% and 5.89%, respectively, on the first day of past earnings releases. After a week of earnings reports, the changes were 1.09%, 12.61%, -6.18% and 8.84%. Their post-earnings price movements have resulted in an average increase of 2.75% and an average increase of 4.09% in Apple Inc. on next day and 7th day, sequentially. AAPL’s one month stock performance led to its shares rising by 2.39% with a return of 6.4% witnessed over the last 52 weeks.

The higher number of analysts at Reuters has assigned a buy or better ratings (24) on the Apple Inc. stock, while 17 of them have a rating of a Hold with the 11-year target price suggested by the analysts standing at $212.08. This price target implies potential upside of 4.68 percent over the next 12 months based on the current share price.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD)

Back on April 30, 2019, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) released its Q2 results, in which it recorded EPS of $2.46 that exceeded consensus estimates of $2.36. After the earnings were reported, the price of AAPL stock kicked off the session at $209.23 and remained in a range of $209.88 to $215.31 on the first day. The shares were priced at $210.52 at the close with a total volume of shares being 64827328.

On January 29, 2019, the Q1 earnings report was disclosed with EPS of $4.18. This was above the estimation of $4.17 per share. The stock price range of AAPL was between $163.25 and $166.15 on the first-day post announcement, after opening the day at $160.23. The session came to close at $165.25 and there was a total volume of 61109780 shares.

November 01, 2018 was the day when its Q4 results were unveiled. The earnings came in at $2.91, beating the projected $2.78 per share. The very next day, AAPL stock opened at $205.43 while staying in a range of $209.55 to $213.65. At the end, it moved to $207.48 a total volume of shares been 91328656.

In the year-ago Q3 earnings on July 31, 2018, the company saw profit per share of $2.34. That was better than the $2.18 analysts had expected. Apple Inc. share price started at $197.31 on the first full trading day post-earning and then exchanged hands between $199.13 and $201.76 throughout the session. The closing price of $201.5 came on the back of 67935720 shares in volume.

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