There is a future of Janata Dal Secular (JDS) and Congress coalition government in Karnataka because voting on trust is to be followed after a long debate.
However, the debate over this has to be long because 20 members have to speak on behalf of the Congress. It is not clear how many members of JDS will participate in this debate.
BJP's State President and Leader of Opposition BS Yeddyurappa has already cleared that his party would like to get the voting done as soon as possible.
He said in the House on Friday, "It will be enough for us a few minutes but we will have to vote sooner."
Voting can be stopped at the same time when the Supreme Court decides on the petition filed by Congress and JDS.
Both the parties have filed a petition with the Supreme Court for clarification on that decision. A week ago, the Supreme Court had said in its decision that the rebel legislators can not be forced to participate in the debate during trust.
Congress and JDS feel that the Supreme Court's ruling that the MLAs are allowed to abstain from the House's proceedings is a violation of the political party's rights.
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This means that the order of the Supreme Court has no meaning for whip.
At present, 15 MLAs have decided to stay separate from the proceedings of the House. Thus, the number of members in the House will be reduced from 224 to 204.
If this happens, the number of BJP legislators will be 107 and the number of Congress-JDS will be 98.
Apart from this, two independent MLAs have also gone towards BJP. Among them is the KPJP of a legislator who has merged with the Congress.
BSP legislator M Mahesh has also decided to stay away from the proceedings of the House, although Mayawati has instructed him to be present in Voting and vote against BJP.
What can the speaker do?
Speaker can handle today's proceedings in such a way so that the debate on trust is fulfilled today.
Congress Legislature Party leader Siddaramaiah has been asked to vote on Monday. It also has the consent of HD Kumaraswamy.
After the debate is complete, the speaker will invite the chief minister to answer.
After the speech of the Chief Minister, preparations for voting will be done, members will sit in their respective seats and the doors of the house will be closed.
After this, the voting process will start on the trust vote. Voting will be done with the first voicemail.
After this the Speaker will ask the members to stand up so that they can be counted. In the end, the Speaker will declare the votes in the opposition and the opposition.
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What can the Chief Minister do?
If the confidence vote gets defeated, Chief Minister Kumaraswamy can submit his resignation to the governor.
If he does not do that, then he can dismiss the governor.
What can the governor do?
There are indications that till Voting is done, the Governor Vajubhai will not do anything. They have already given two instructions for voting. Challenging this, the Chief Minister has already filed a petition in the Supreme Court.
If the Chief Minister does not resign after defeating in confidence, the governor can sack the government and invite BS Yeddyurappa to form the government. They can give them time to gain trust.
What is the role of the Supreme Court?
In front of the Supreme Court, there are two petitions related to it. The first petition relates to the rights of political parties, which have been asked to clarify the issue of the issuance of Vip.
If the Supreme Court decides in favor of this plea, then voting may be delayed as the legislators will have to come from Mumbai. This possibility can not be denied
Apart from this, the second petition is about the authority to give directions to the governor. The Supreme Court can also decide about whether the Governor has the right to initiate the process of trusting that he directs the Chief Minister to vote.
What will happen to the villagers?
If the Supreme Court comes on the issue of Vip, then the rebel legislators may have to come to Bangalore.
If they prefer to be disqualified they can not participate in voting despite being present in the House.
Speaker can take cognizance of Violation violation and both parties may also appeal to disqualify those members.
If the Kumaraswamy government falls, then the new speaker will be selected on the advice of the new Chief Minister and he can accept the resignation of the rebel legislators.
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